A few people have pointed me to this discussion about Infoquake on the Asimov’s forums. Some of the forum participants appear to be skeptical about Infoquake because it doesn’t embrace open source software as the end-all, be-all of human existence.
I could point out that one shouldn’t necessarily take anything one reads in a science fiction novel as an outright prediction. I’ve blogged elsewhere about the impossibility of predicting the future in any meaningful kind of way. As many other people have said, science fiction is largely about the present, and Infoquake isn’t really a serious attempt at predicting what life will be like in the year x. It’s more like looking at the year 2006 through a funhouse mirror in order to see things in a different light.
But enough about the book. The real question is whether open source software will become the dominant (or even only) form of programming in the future. My answer to this question is no, because I don’t think the open source software model has proven itself yet.
A very quick summary of the debate before we get much further:
- Proprietary software is like a car that’s sold to you with the hood closed and sealed. You want to tinker around under the hood to make your car run faster or smoother? Tough, you can’t. Only authorized mechanics and dealers can get under that hood. No, more than that, only authorized mechanics and dealers are legally allowed under that hood.
- Open source software, by contrast, is like a car that’s sold with the hood wide open. Complete documentation for every last screw, bolt, and chip is sitting in the glove compartment, and everyone in the world can poke their nose in your engine and see how long it’s been since your last oil change.
The idea with open source software is that, when everyone has access to the complete source code, everyone can pitch in to fix security exploits and coding inefficiencies. You don’t get the kind of security snafus you get with Windows where some independent researcher finds an exploit and everyone has to wait around for Microsoft to fix it. When will the patch be ready? “We’re working on a fix,” say the ‘Softies. “Just keep quiet for a few more months. It’s not that bad. Trust us.”
Open source sounds like a great idea, in theory. But so does socialism. And while I’m not ready to throw in the towel on socialism either, let’s just say that thus far it hasn’t performed as well in the real world as it does in a laboratory setting.
But the open source movement has produced some very good pieces of software, like Mozilla Firefox, the OpenOffice suite, the GAIM instant messaging client, the MySQL database, and the Apache web server. There’s also Linux, of course, an operating system which has become ubiquitous in technical circles and on web servers, even if it hasn’t made much traction on the typical business user’s desktop. This blog itself runs on WordPress, an open source project.
So why am I down on open source’s prospects for the long term? A few reasons: